Musings on Greenwood

The title contains a link to a poll indicating the NDP has bumped the Liberals out of second place in this election.

It says the Tories, despite running a horrible campaign, sit at 43% but a majority is still not guaranteed and the Bloc Quebecois is in all kinds of trouble.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, it’s important to remember two undeniable truths about Canadian elections; the Tories and the NDP always slide in the last week before a vote as nervous nellies in both camps begin to have second thoughts.

This poll is, by no means, money in the bank.

Granted, it’s terrible news for the Liberals and great news for the NDP but for these numbers to hold, they would have to buck every trend we’ve seen in every election over the past decade.

There’s going to be a big move to crucify Ignatieff for the Liberal Party’s. Yes, his leadership is not inspiring but the problems facing that party are systemic. The Big Red Machine is dead. It has been since 1982.

I’ve blogged about this before. The Liberals lost their grip on power when they repatriated the Constitution without Quebec. They’ve never won La Belle Province ever since.

The 1990s duped Liberals into believing everything was hunkydory because of Chretien’s majorities. Of course, those were won with a divided opposition. As soon as the two conservative parties got their act together, the Liberal Party wilted.

The Conservatives have ran an unfocused, uninspiring and undisciplined campaign yet their polling numbers hover between 36 and 43 percent. That’s because the Conservatives have a rock solid base in the West. The Liberals have no base anymore.

In short, the Tories may or may not win a majority, the NDP may or may not become the Official Opposition but one thing is clear: the Liberal Party of Canada that towered over the country in the Twentieth Century is no more.

Expect to see fear mongering and desperation out of the Liberals in the last phase of this campaign. In the past, this has successfully chiseled away the soft NDP vote right before the election.

If it doesn’t work this time, Ignatieff will be back at Harvard on May 3rd.

Ethan Rabidoux