Musings on Greenwood

I’m in a much better mood today than when I did my post on the Elizabeth May and the federal leaders debate.

Unfortunately for her, I stand by my original position. No seat in the house, no podium in the debate.

My pleasant mood is from the Blue Jays season opener. As I write this, they’re winning 10-0. Wahoo!

Ok, so what happened today in the federal election. This article is interesting;

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/national/liberal-leader-michael-ignatieff-revives-family-care-tax-benefit-promise-119062399.html

This article fits into the media fetish of a tight electoral race. There’s no such thing as momentum in an election until the last ten days before the actual vote.

Regardless, it claims Ignatieff won the first week of this election. I would have to agree for two reasons.

First, Harper is a terrible campaigner. He always has been. Unlike Mulroney or Harris, Harper is at his worst the more he interacts with Canadians.

And second, the Tories have spent millions of dollars portraying Ignatieff as a donkey raping cannibal. Expectations were so low for the Liberal leader, all he had to do was show up. He’s done that. He wins the first week.

Also, Harper has done a few stupid things just to help out the Liberal cause. He’s beating the coalition drum even though he tried to weld together a coalition in 2004, he’s engaged in open warfare with Quebec Premier Jean Charest and his decision to challenge Ignatieff to a debate only to later back down was pitiful.

None of these things are going to end the Conservatives as a political force but if they keep building up (and they will) Harper will, at best, win another minority. It’s like his arts funding comment in the previous election. These are all things good campaign managers can control.

Whether you love them or hate them, Karl Rove and James Carville both guided candidates to the White House who had much larger capacities for stupid behaviour and dumb comments than Harper could ever shadow.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; Harper surrounds himself with five-year-olds like Doug Finley and it’s costing him his majority again.

As for Jack Layton, I honestly feel sorry for this guy. The situation he’s in is completely unfair. The guy is recovering from cancer and surgery as he fights a national campaign.

This will definitely be his last campaign no matter what. He’s earned the chance to give it 100% but he just doesn’t physically have the goods right now. We’ll see how he holds up.

Layton is usually a masterful campaigner but he’s been completely lacklustre so far through no fault of his own. Some polls indicate the NDP numbers are rising in Quebec but it’s far too early for them to celebrate.

In short, Ignatieff has exceeded the bargain-basement expectations of Canadians, Harper has duplicated his previous electoral patterns and Layton has not been able to maintain his usual Energizer Bunny pace due to his health.

We’ll see what next week holds…

Ethan Rabidoux