Musings on Greenwood

I have to draw everyone’s attention to a blog post I made back in January:

http://rabidoux.tumblr.com/post/2684704286

I made a number of predictions about Ontario and Canadian politics. Among them, I predicted a federal election in the Spring, a weakened Conservative minority followed by a Liberal/NDP coalition that would toss Harper out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

I believe my first two predictions are absolutely right. Obviously, there has been a Spring election and I believe the Tories will end up with less than they had before on May 2nd.

However, it won’t be a Liberal/NDP coalition that boots Stephen Harper. It will be an NDP/Liberal coalition that does the job.

When I look back at my blog post in January, I conveyed my opinion that both Harper and Ignatieff are awkward, elitist, snobby bookworms who would rather sit in an ivory tower and govern by decree than interact with the mere peasants of Canadian society.

I also talked about the insight I had acquired as a journalist in a small, working man’s town. I’ve been privy to coffee shop conversations and town hall meetings of the rank-and-file, “ordinary joe” and I had noticed a very clear disillusionment with all those in power.

This anti-incumbancy sentiment vaulted Rob Ford to power in Toronto and Naheed Nanshi in Calgary among many other municipal examples accross the country.

It’s the same voter backlash that will dump Dalton McGuinty into the trash heap of history this October.

I also predicted it would deny the Conservatives a majority government but I never, at any point, mentioned Jack Layton.

That’s one aspect of the current campaign I didn’t see coming.

I have attached a Globe and Mail article in the title of this blog post. It shows that the NDP are stealing votes from all of their opponents. They have almost completely raided the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois has been pillaged.

However, they’re also bleeding votes from the Liberals and the Conservatives.

This is why all the other leaders, including Harper, are now attacking Layton. The Conservatives completely understand the myth of strategic voting. It’s a fallacy to assume that a vote for the NDP would have otherwise gone to the Liberals.

In most parts of this country, typically the rural and blue collar regions, it’s a battle between the Conservatives and the NDP for the hearts and minds of voters. The Liberals don’t even register.

I’ve witnessed this my whole life. Both political parties have a natural appeal to the ordinary workers.

The Tories appeal to traditional values of hard work and patriotism, keeping what you earn and the moral obligation of every able bodied citizen to get off their couch and find a job.

The NDP talks about collectivism, trade unionism, a living wage for an honest day’s work and the need to tax the wealthy to pay for social programs for the poor, the working class and others.

I have long argued that the biggest mistake made by the union movement in Canada was to mix socialism with trade unionism. They are two different ideologies but that’s off topic.

In short, the NDP and the Tories, through ideology and messaging, often vie for the same votes.

This is why the two are fighting for Welland, Oshawa, Saskatchewan and Northern Ontario. It’s why the only party, other than the Conservatives, who will win at least on seat in Alberta are the New Democrats.

The NDP are winning this fight because they have a leader who seems to resonate with workers. Unlike the champagne socialists in his party, Layton doesn’t look down his nose at ordinary Canadians as a group of ignorant asses who dont’ know what’s good for them.

He’s also blessed to be up against two opponents who do hold that view of voters:

http://rabidoux.tumblr.com/post/4261418956

http://rabidoux.tumblr.com/post/4260707706

There are two sections of the NDP. The one believes they should be hardcore gas-and-water socialists who are the “conscience” of parliament at any cost. The other believes that the party needs to actually be in power or at least near it to affect social change.

Layton belongs to the group who believes in making a difference. The other group thinks it’s more important to make a point. That crowd can be found at rabble.ca. Layton has moved his party away from the narrow politics of obstinance and protest towards the politics of negotiation, compromise and power.

I believe his efforts will be rewarded on election day.

Indeed, Layton appears on television to be the only leader who enjoys his job. He seems to feel interacting with Canadians is the best part of being a politician. Harper and Ignatieff seem to feel it’s the worst aspect.

If these observations are untrue then it is at least the perception they give off to voters.

It also doesn’t help that Harper has betrayed rank-and-file conservatives who voted for open, honest, clean government that practices fiscal restraint and individual freedom.

The Liberals are spent as a national force. They have been since 1982. Chretien’s success was a fluke due to a divided Conservative movement. He would have never won a single majority had Canadian Conservatism not committed harakiri.

http://rabidoux.tumblr.com/post/676412158

So, the circumstances are perfect for Jack Layton to pull of an upset in this election.

BTW, this is not an endorsement of NDP policies. I am however, tipping my hat to Layton for brilliantly positioning his party over the last eight years to be prepared to capitalize when the opportunity presented itself.

That time is now and Layton is ready.

If the Tories fail to secure a majority, Harper’s days are numbered. The surging NDP has all but assured that Harper will not pass the 155 seat mark.

If Layton successfully pushes Stephen Harper into retirement, the NDP leader will have given Conservatives and conservatives the greatest gift of all. We can then put in place a leader who will establish a team that can win and a party that can govern with principle.

I do predict the NDP will dislodge the Liberals as the official opposition. I believe Harper gets a minority and loses his job.

What started out as a boring election has become very exciting. I saw the winds of change coming two years ago but I didn’t see how it would manifest itself.

I think we’re in for a surprise on election night. If Harper and Ignatieff aren’t losing sleep over it then they sure ought to be.

Ethan Rabidoux